Periods of uncertainty have always driven investors back to basics, and towards gold especially. That’s because we’re living through a visceral mix of economic, political, and monetary instability. As Arbra Partners’ Group CEO Philip Harris already explored in his analysis when gold passed the $4,000 mark for the first time in history, it remains the singular asset that still commands an unquestioning amount of trust.

The reasons are as numerous as the speculation that pervades the newscycle and demands attention from investors. Tariff volatility, renewed pressure on global trade routes and continuing events at the US Federal Reserve have weakened confidence in the dollar’s long-term dominance even further.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that central banks and institutional investors are increasing their gold reserves. Poland’s central bank recently announced that it is doubling down on bullion, buying another 150 tons to boost its own reserves – more than Mexico and Brazil’s entire holdings, as reported by Bloomberg.

With returns above 1600% this century, Goldman Sachs raising its year end price forecast by more than 10% and prices hitting $5,000 once again, it’s proof positive that its appeal remains as alluring as its performance remains relatively strong.

Gold might be described as an “alternative” asset, but it’s a description that seems antediluvian and more erroneous with every passing day. In fact, I would argue that it should be considered foundational, and an integral part of an investor's balanced portfolio in the same way as real estate. 

For those with a higher conviction in the current macro environment, significantly greater exposure can be justified. What makes gold so compelling at this moment is not mere speculation, but pragmatism. It functions not only as a store of value, but as a liquid asset that preserves something else: optionality.

I don’t believe that gold is an asset to trade impulsively – this year, it is the asset to hold. This is not the time for aggressive repositioning; instead it is about patience. Geopolitical, economic, and institutional uncertainties are ever-present and look set to remain so in 2026 with major political events still to unfold. Allowing conditions to stabilise should be a priority, rather than a chance to anticipate or time markets.

It’s also why liquidity still remains critical for investors. Those who retain exposure to liquid assets will be best positioned to act decisively when genuine opportunities emerge. Gold helps preserve value while keeping capital mobile. When opportunities do arise, which often occurs in dislocated markets, those who remain liquid will benefit from a clear first-mover advantage.

Another source of uncertainty for investors lies in the distinction between owning physical bullion and holding financial instruments linked to the price of gold. Physical ownership raises practical questions. How is the metal stored? Who safeguards it? And does the investor own the bullion itself, or merely a claim on it? These questions matter because they determine whether gold is being held as an asset or as a financial exposure.

Gold-linked securities, however efficient, are contractual by nature. Their value depends not only on movements in the gold price but also on the legal, operational, and financial integrity of the institutions that issue, custody, and settle them. This introduces counterparty and institutional risk, which may appear negligible in normal conditions but can become material during periods of financial stress. Physical bullion, when held directly or on an allocated and segregated basis, does not depend on an intermediary’s solvency to retain its value or existence.

The distinction is therefore structural rather than semantic. Gold held through financial instruments offers liquidity and convenience, but at the cost of reliance on financial infrastructure. Physical bullion offers fewer efficiencies but greater certainty of ownership. For investors seeking insurance against systemic disruption rather than mere exposure to price movements, that trade-off is central, not incidental.

For investors, gold is not about retreat, but about being prepared. For Arbra Partners, it is about safeguarding wealth today in order to act with intelligence tomorrow. Even as parts of the private markets continue to see extraordinary valuations, which are often concentrated into large companies such as the Mag 7, the broader landscape still remains fragile. As we see it, restraint is not inactivity, it is a combination of discipline and strategy. 

At times like these, there’s a tendency for investors to return to what they know. Gold represents exactly that: a tangible, liquid, time-tested asset that allows investors to remain grounded while waiting for the wider world to recalibrate itself. 

As the peaks look set to continue, our responsibility is to ensure clients are positioned not only to endure uncertainty, but also to benefit from what follows.